本文摘要：Cybersecurity has gotten big – real big. Crime involving computers and networks has cost the world economy more than $445 billion annually, according to a June 2014 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Increasingly, hackers have grown more sophisticated targeting major corporations from retailers Target TGT 0.74% andNeiman Marcus to financial juggernaut JP Morgan JPM 0.97% and technology leaders eBay EBAY 0.12% , Snapchat and Adobe ADBE -0.12% , and countless others.网络安全早已发展出了一个十分可观的产业。

Cybersecurity has gotten big – real big. Crime involving computers and networks has cost the world economy more than $445 billion annually, according to a June 2014 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Increasingly, hackers have grown more sophisticated targeting major corporations from retailers Target TGT 0.74% andNeiman Marcus to financial juggernaut JP Morgan JPM 0.97% and technology leaders eBay EBAY 0.12% , Snapchat and Adobe ADBE -0.12% , and countless others.网络安全早已发展出了一个十分可观的产业。据美国战略与国际研究中心（Center for Strategic and International Studies）2014年6月的一份报告表明，全球每年花上在防止计算机与网络犯罪上的投放高达4450亿美元。黑客技术的发展也日新月益，而且黑客们也更加把目标瞄向一些全球知名企业，比如零售业的塔吉特（Target）和尼曼（Neiman）、金融巨头摩根大通（JP Morgan）、科技巨擘eBay、Snapchat、Adobe，以及无数其他公司。

The threats are indeed real and escalating for many corporations, but it’s worth asking if the fears are overplayed and if a cybersecurity bubble is brewing? For the past two years, consumer curiosity and fear,often unjustified, has fueled mainstream media coverage of cybersecurity breaches causing more fear and more coverage, resulting in hype. Many investors looking to speculate on the next big thing have been buying into the industry with little regard for sound financial metrics such as the industry’s total addressable market, its reasonable growth rate, and each vendor’s slice of the overall pie.网络安全威胁对很多企业来说毫无疑问是现实不存在的，而且风险还在大幅下降。但是我们有适当问一句，人们对网络安全的担忧否有些过头了？眼下否显然有一个网络安全泡沫正在烘烤？过去两年里，常常有一些予以证实的案例更有了消费者的奇怪和混乱，同时也造成主流媒体增大了对网络安全泄露事件的报导力度，从而引发了更加多人的混乱。随之而来的是更加多的报导，将网络安全的威胁图形到了无以复加的地步。很多期望通过找到“下一个大事件”而放一笔横财的投资人还没谨慎实地考察这个行业的基本财务指标（比如行业的总体目标市场、合理增长率和每个厂商能分给的市场份额等），就匆忙跳入了这个行业。

Investors have been too enthusiastic, and as a result, the shares of cybersecurity companies are overpriced. Overinvestment has been rampant in both the public and private markets. In the public market, thecorrection is already underway. FireEye FEYE -0.81% , the current poster-child of public cybersecurity pure plays is currently valued at $5.2 billion, down from $13 billion in March, with only $207 million in annual revenues. Imperva IMPV 1.41% is now worth $573 million, down from $1.7 billion in March, with $141 million in annual sales. Both companies have yet to turn a profit.由于投资人展现出得过分热情，网络安全公司的股价往往被低估。在公开发表和投资基金市场上，对网络安全公司过度投资的现象都可以用洪水泛滥一词来形容。公开市场上现在早已经常出现了缺失的迹象。比如FireEye公司就是网络安全行业上市公司中的典型代表，虽然它的年收益只有2.07亿美元，但今年3月它的估值一度高达130亿美元，但目前早已回升到52亿美元。

In the private market, venture capital firms invested a record of $1.4 billion in 239 cybersecurity companies in 2013, according to CB Insights. The median deal size and average pre-money valuation for these transactions increased significantly. When investors buy assets priced much higher than intrinsic values and are overly optimistic about financial metrics influenced by hype, one can suspect that one is witnessing an asset bubble.据美国市调公司CB Insights透露，在投资基金市场上，2013年各大风投公司向239家网络安全公司投放了创记录的14亿美金的资本。这些交易的融资规模中值和交易前估值都呈现出明显下跌的势头。如果投资人以明显低于公司内在价值的价格出售一笔资产，同时在宣传的影响下对它们的财务标准过分悲观，那么可以再会，我们正在亲眼一个资产泡沫的构成。At YL Ventures, we experience this phenomenon even with seed-stage startups! The number of new cybersecurity companies looking for funding has dramatically increased since 2012; early-stage funding rounds got a lot bigger; pre-money valuations have increased dramatically; and investors that have no experience investing in the space are flocking into it. These observations are true for both the U.S. and theIsraeli markets to which we have exposure – both are hotbeds of cybersecurity innovation.在我们YL Ventures公司，我们找到这种现象甚至经常出现在了种子阶段的创业公司身上！自从2012年以来，新的网络安全公司如雨后春笋般兴起，四处融资；同时，对这个领域没什么经验的投资人也四散而进。

由于我们在美国和以色列市场都有子母，因此我们在美国和以色列市场上都找到了这个现象，这两个国家都是网络安全创意的热土。Is the disillusionment phase that seems to have begun in some public cybersecurity stocks indicative of a broader bubble burst? If so, will it be quick and dramatic, or gradual and tame? We don’t know, but we are prepared for a world in which cybersecurity companies may struggle to raise more financing, valuations may decrease and investors may become more defensive.有些上市网络安全公司股票的下跌否伴随着大泡沫全面裂痕的破灭阶段早已开始了？如果答案是认同的，那么泡沫暴跌的过程是如暴风骤雨一般，还是较慢衰落？我们还不告诉，不过我们早已作好了打算，应付众多网络安全公司有可能难以获得更加多融资的局面。市场对网络安全公司的估值可能会暴跌，投资人也有可能显得更为慎重。

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